Health Forecast & Sick Day Tracker: February 26, 2026

Status: RED (High Activity) – Norovirus and Influenza B are currently at peak transmission levels in school environments across North America.

### The “Big Three” Virus Update

• Influenza B (Pediatric Surge): While Influenza A cases have begun to stabilize, Influenza B is surging nationally. This strain is notorious for high pediatric transmission. We are seeing a significant impact on middle and high school attendance this week, with “Subclade K” being the predominant lineage noted by health officials.

• Norovirus (The “Stomach Bug”): This is a high-contagion period for school cafeterias. Norovirus is currently 35-40% above the five-season average. Unlike respiratory viruses, this “stomach flu” survives well on shared surfaces like lunch tables and playground equipment.

• RSV & Colds: Respiratory issues remain a steady challenge for Pre-K to 2nd Grade. While RSV hospitalizations are slightly down from January peaks, secondary “copycat” colds (Adenovirus and Rhinovirus) are keeping early childhood classrooms at lower-than-normal capacity.

### School Staffing Alert: Closure Risks

We are tracking a critical shortage of educators and support staff. High student absenteeism is now being followed by “Teacher Clusters,” where entire grade-level teams are sidelined simultaneously.

• Hot Zones for Remote Learning: Districts in HHS Regions 4 (Southeast) and 6 (South Central) are at the highest risk of shifting to “Emergency Sick Days” or temporary Remote Learning due to a lack of available substitute teachers.

• Transportation Warning: Bus driver shortages are particularly acute in the Midwest, where “rolling cancellations” of routes are being used to manage staff illness.

### The “Stay or Go” Decision Table

### Regional “Hot Zones”

The following areas are seeing the highest “Percent Positivity” in school-based testing:

1. The Southeast (Region 4): High RSV and Influenza B activity.

2. The Midwest (Region 7): Spiking Norovirus clusters in elementary schools.

3. The Northeast (Region 2): Elevated Influenza A and B co-circulation.

4. Pacific Northwest: Stable but high levels of general “Cold & Flu” absenteeism.

### Pro-Tip for Parents

Check your school’s “Sick Day” attendance policy before 8:00 AM. Many districts have updated their portals to allow for “Illness Excusal” uploads. Taking a quick photo of a positive home test or a doctor’s note now can prevent a headache with “unexcused absence” letters later this spring.